The qualifying offer has impacted the free-agent market for the last 10 offseasons, but it wasn’t obvious if there would be an 11th while Major League Baseball and the MLBPA engaged in labor talks last winter. When the lockout ended and the new collective bargaining agreement was reached, one sticking issue remained: an international player draft. If the union consented to this draft, the league would have scrapped the qualifying offer system.
However, July’s deadline for a decision on an international draft passed without any new agreement, therefore the QO will stay for the 2022-23 free-agent class. We can now forecast which players will or could receive qualifying offers from their teams at the end of the season.
A quick review on the QO rules. The qualifying offer is a one-year contract with a wage established by averaging the top 125 salaries of MLB players. Last year’s QO was $18.4M, therefore it’s safe to assume that this winter’s will be between $18M-$19M.
Any free agent is eligible for a qualifying offer unless a) they’ve gotten one in the past or b) they haven’t spent the complete 2022 season with their present team. The Padres can’t issue Josh Bell a qualifying offer because he was acquired at the trade deadline.
If a player accepts the qualifying offer, he returns to his existing team on a one-year deal in the $18M-$19M bracket. (The player can negotiate a longer-term agreement with his team after accepting a QO, as Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019).
Some free agents have accepted the qualifying offer, but most reject it in quest of a better, longer contract. If a player rejects a QO and contracts elsewhere, their new team must give up at least one draft selection and maybe some international draft-pool money, while their previous team will obtain a compensation draft pick.
This year’s free agents are eligible for the QO, so let’s look at some candidates, starting with position players.
Easy calls: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Willson Contreras (Cubs), Aaron Judge (Yankees), Brandon Nimmo (Mets), Dansby Swanson (Braves), Trea Turner (Dodgers)
There isn’t much drama in any of these decisions, since these players are all apparent candidates for qualifying offers that will be rejected.
Nimmo is arguably the lone name on this list that is a bit of a surprise, but he has quietly generated solid results over his seven seasons with New York, including a superb 2022 campaign. Nimmo has also kept healthy, playing in 104 of the Mets’ 113 games. This is the second-most games he’s played in his injury-plagued career.
Arenado and Bogaerts aren’t assured to be free agents since they might forgo opt-out clauses in their contracts. Bogaerts is a virtual lock to opt out, and Arenado is having such a strong season that he should be able to eclipse the $144M he is owed until 2023-27. Since Arenado has been vocal about how much he likes playing for the Cardinals, an extension is possible before he hits the open market, with the Cards possibly tacking on another guaranteed year and additional money to dissuade him from opting out.
Tim Anderson’s contract-option calls are easy (White Sox)
The White Sox possess club options on Anderson for the 2023 and 2024 seasons, with next year’s option valued $12.5M (with a $1M buyout). Although he might legally be a free agent, the Sox will execute Anderson’s 2023 option, thus a qualifying offer is pointless.
Borderline cases: Mitch Haniger (Mariners), J.D. Martinez (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)
Rizzo’s two-year, $32M free-agent pact with the Yankees has an opt-out clause after this season, and it seems the first baseman (who turned 33 this week) will try the open market again. Rizzo’s first full season in the Bronx saw him hit.224/.342/.504 with 27 home runs and the fifth-best wRC+ (139) of his career. Rizzo’s age, home/road splits, and first-base-only status will limit his market, and draft-pick compensation via the qualifying offer will make other teams leery.
Rizzo still landed a multiyear agreement last winter after a lesser platform year, so he should match or outperform that pact again. Rizzo has quickly become a clubhouse and fan favorite in New York, so he could be enticed to forego on an opt-out due to a contract extension.
Haniger has participated in only 15 games this season due to a high-ankle sprain and a two-week stint on the COVID-related injury list in April. He’s been on a run since returning to action last week, but if his numbers drop down, Seattle won’t issue a qualifying offer. If Haniger continues to hit and returns to his 2021 form, the Mariners face a tough decision.
A late-season hot streak could boost Haniger’s market enough to reject a qualifying offer. Since Haniger turns 32 in December, this could be his best hope at a big multiyear deal. Haniger might still choose to accept the QO, knowing that his injury history could work against him in free agency.
He could bank the one-year QO payment and hope for a full and healthy 2023 season as a better platform for a longer-term deal. From the Mariners’ perspective, spending about $19M for Haniger could be a fair investment, especially considering the team doesn’t know what to anticipate from Kyle Lewis and Jarred Kelenic moving into 2023.
Martinez turns 35 on August 21 and is still delivering above-average (120 wRC+) stats, hitting.281/.346/.443 with nine home runs over 422 plate appearances. That’s a considerable power decline from Martinez’s standards, and he’s been a DH this season. Even with the danger of losing Bogaerts, Boston might hesitate on issuing a QO to Martinez because of concern that he might accept. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems to want greater roster and payroll flexibility.
Profar is another unlikely prospect to receive a qualifying offer, even if he’s playing well. Profar’s offensive (119 wRC+, 12 homers,.254/.345/.416 over 467 PA) and defensive (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +1.8 UZR/150 in left field) performances have helped him to a 2.8 fWAR in 107 games with San Diego this season, a nice bounce-back from a dismal 2021. With a player option on his 2023 services, Profar may earn $7.5M next season or take the $1M buyout and test the market.
At the absolute least, Profar will opt out and try to secure a longer-term contract, but it would be a stretch if the Padres extended a qualifying offer. Profar will be 30 on Opening Day, so he may accept the QO to lock in a one-year paycheck and test the market again at age 31.
The Padres likely exceed the luxury-tax threshold for the second straight year and will have several free-agent decisions this winter. They probably won’t want to risk Profar getting bumped into the $19M salary area. Profar might be another extension contender, given A.J. Preller’s conviction in his ability from their days in the Rangers organization.
Forecasting the 2022-23 qualifying offers: Position players
The qualifying offer has impacted the free-agent market for the last 10 offseasons, but it wasn’t obvious if there would be an 11th while Major League Baseball and the MLBPA engaged in labor talks last winter. When the lockout ended and the new collective bargaining agreement was reached, one sticking issue remained: an international player draft. If the union consented to this draft, the league would have scrapped the qualifying offer system.
However, July’s deadline for a decision on an international draft passed without any new agreement, therefore the QO will stay for the 2022-23 free-agent class. We can now forecast which players will or could receive qualifying offers from their teams at the end of the season.
A quick review on the QO rules. The qualifying offer is a one-year contract with a wage established by averaging the top 125 salaries of MLB players. Last year’s QO was $18.4M, therefore it’s safe to assume that this winter’s will be between $18M-$19M. Any free agent is eligible for a qualifying offer unless a) they’ve gotten one in the past or b) they haven’t spent the complete 2022 season with their present team. The Padres can’t issue Josh Bell a qualifying offer because he was acquired at the trade deadline.
If a player accepts the qualifying offer, he returns to his existing team on a one-year deal in the $18M-$19M bracket. (The player can negotiate a longer-term agreement with his team after accepting a QO, as Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019).
Some free agents have accepted the qualifying offer, but most reject it in quest of a better, longer contract. If a player rejects a QO and contracts elsewhere, their new team must give up at least one draft selection and maybe some international draft-pool money, while their previous team will obtain a compensation draft pick.
This year’s free agents are eligible for the QO, so let’s look at some candidates, starting with position players.
Easy calls: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Willson Contreras (Cubs), Aaron Judge (Yankees), Brandon Nimmo (Mets), Dansby Swanson (Braves), Trea Turner (Dodgers)
There isn’t much drama in any of these decisions, since these players are all apparent candidates for qualifying offers that will be rejected. Nimmo is arguably the lone name on this list that is a bit of a surprise, but he has quietly generated solid results over his seven seasons with New York, including a superb 2022 campaign. Nimmo has also kept healthy, playing in 104 of the Mets’ 113 games. This is the second-most games he’s played in his injury-plagued career.
Arenado and Bogaerts aren’t assured to be free agents since they might forgo opt-out clauses in their contracts. Bogaerts is a virtual lock to opt out, and Arenado is having such a strong season that he should be able to eclipse the $144M he is owed until 2023-27.
Since Arenado has been vocal about how much he likes playing for the Cardinals, an extension is possible before he hits the open market, with the Cards possibly tacking on another guaranteed year and additional money to dissuade him from opting out.
Tim Anderson’s contract-option calls are easy (White Sox)
The White Sox possess club options on Anderson for the 2023 and 2024 seasons, with next year’s option valued $12.5M (with a $1M buyout). Although he might legally be a free agent, the Sox will execute Anderson’s 2023 option, thus a qualifying offer is pointless.
Borderline cases: Mitch Haniger (Mariners), J.D. Martinez (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)
Rizzo’s two-year, $32M free-agent pact with the Yankees has an opt-out clause after this season, and it seems the first baseman (who turned 33 this week) will try the open market again. Rizzo’s first full season in the Bronx saw him hit.224/.342/.504 with 27 home runs and the fifth-best wRC+ (139) of his career. Rizzo’s age, home/road splits, and first-base-only status will limit his market, and draft-pick compensation via the qualifying offer will make other teams leery.
Rizzo still landed a multiyear agreement last winter after a lesser platform year, so he should match or outperform that pact again. Rizzo has quickly become a clubhouse and fan favorite in New York, so he could be enticed to forego on an opt-out due to a contract extension.
Haniger has participated in only 15 games this season due to a high-ankle sprain and a two-week stint on the COVID-related injury list in April. He’s been on a run since returning to action last week, but if his numbers drop down, Seattle won’t issue a qualifying offer. If Haniger continues to hit and returns to his 2021 form, the Mariners face a tough decision.
A late-season hot streak could boost Haniger’s market enough to reject a qualifying offer. Since Haniger turns 32 in December, this could be his best hope at a big multiyear deal. Haniger might still choose to accept the QO, knowing that his injury history could work against him in free agency.
He could bank the one-year QO payment and hope for a full and healthy 2023 season as a better platform for a longer-term deal. From the Mariners’ perspective, spending about $19M for Haniger could be a fair investment, especially considering the team doesn’t know what to anticipate from Kyle Lewis and Jarred Kelenic moving into 2023.
Martinez turns 35 on August 21 and is still delivering above-average (120 wRC+) stats, hitting.281/.346/.443 with nine home runs over 422 plate appearances. That’s a considerable power decline from Martinez’s standards, and he’s been a DH this season. Even with the danger of losing Bogaerts, Boston might hesitate on issuing a QO to Martinez because of concern that he might accept. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems to want greater roster and payroll flexibility.
Profar is another unlikely prospect to receive a qualifying offer, even if he’s playing well. Profar’s offensive (119 wRC+, 12 homers,.254/.345/.416 over 467 PA) and defensive (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +1.8 UZR/150 in left field) performances have helped him to a 2.8 fWAR in 107 games with San Diego this season, a nice bounce-back from a dismal 2021. With a player option on his 2023 services, Profar may earn $7.5M next season or take the $1M buyout and test the market.
At the absolute least, Profar will opt out and try to secure a longer-term contract, but it would be a stretch if the Padres extended a qualifying offer. Profar will be 30 on Opening Day, so he may accept the QO to lock in a one-year paycheck and test the market again at age 31.
The Padres likely exceed the luxury-tax threshold for the second straight year and will have several free-agent decisions this winter. They probably won’t want to risk Profar getting bumped into the $19M salary area. Profar might be another extension contender, given A.J. Preller’s conviction in his ability from their days in the Rangers organization.